What drives crude oil prices: Overview

EIA assesses the various factors that may influence crude oil prices — physical market factors as well as those related to trading and financial markets. We describe the seven key factors that could influence oil markets and explore possible linkages between each factor and crude oil prices. We include regularly-updated graphs that depict aspects of those relationships.

Several graphs include projections from EIAs Short-Term Energy Outlook. Graphs are updated with new data on a monthly, quarterly, and annual basis according to the schedule below. Analytical text will be updated as needed.

All graphs

Graph update schedule by section     Update frequency Last update
Supply: Non-OPEC    
Production & WTI crude prices Monthly 08/10/2021
Changes in production capacity & GDP, price of WTI crude Monthly 08/10/2021
Projected supply, annual average Monthly 08/10/2021
OPEC and Non-opec Supply disruption Monthly 08/10/2021
 
Supply: OPEC    
Changes in Saudi Production & WTI crude prices Monthly 08/10/2021
Spare production capacity & WTI crude prices Monthly 08/10/2021
Changes in production capacity & GDP, price of WTI crude Monthly 08/10/2021
OPEC and Non-opec Supply disruption Monthly 08/10/2021
 
Balance    
OECD inventories & WTI futures spread Monthly 08/10/2021
 
Spot Prices    
World crude oil prices Monthly 07/31/2021
U.S. retail gasoline price, refiner acquisition cost of crude oil Monthly 08/10/2021
Crude price reaction to events Quarterly 06/30/2021
 
Financial Markets    
Average daily open interest in crude oil futures Quarterly 06/30/2021
Futures positions by producers, merchants, processors, & end users Monthly 07/31/2021
Futures positions by money managers Monthly 07/31/2021
Correlations between daily prices changes of crude & other commodities Quarterly 06/30/2021

Commodity index assets under management & Dow Jones UBS price index

Quarterly 06/30/2021
Composition of the Dow Jones UBS commodity index Annual 2019
Correlations between daily returns on crude oil & financial investments Quarterly 06/30/2021
 
Demand: Non-OECD    
Consumption & GDP Monthly 08/10/2021
World oil consumption, world GDP & WTI crude oil prices Monthly 08/10/2021
Projected non-OECD production, annual average Monthly 08/10/2021
 
Demand: OECD    
Crude oil consumption & WTI crude oil price Monthly 08/10/2021
World oil consumption, world GDP & WTI crude oil prices Monthly 08/10/2021

Say hello

Find us at the office

Chappa- Adamitis street no. 38, 81811 Tripoli, Libya

Give us a ring

Alda Runion
+69 213 130 910
Mon - Fri, 10:00-22:00

Say hello