First, let’s clear up the whole outstanding shares and recount non-sense.
AMC OUTSTANDING SHARES (Class A) as of March 11, 2021:
Scroll to bottom of the first page. This can’t be manipulated.
AMC published (on March 5, 2021) a Notice of Annual Meeting of Stockholder to be held on May 4 2021
This meeting is held to approve the increase the total number of shares of Class A common stock by 500,000,000 to a total of 1,024,173,073 - among other things. They are not issuing 500M new shares on that day, just asking for the right to - all at once or little by little.
They set the date of March 11, 2021 as the ‘register by date’ to be allowed to vote in that meeting: “Our Board has fixed the close of business on March 11, 2021 as the record date for determining the stockholders entitled to notice of and to vote at the Annual Meeting”
There is no recount. They know exactly how many shares are outstanding. They are not trying to count shares. They are just doing the routine call to register for the right to vote. As not every shareholder wants to vote, they asked to created proxys/quorums to vote en masse. Standard procedure.
Last year, AMC published the same notice, asking for the same registration, as is absolutely normal and standard: http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001411579/e2e535fa-d203-4b99-b206-05f2009217c9.pdf
** OPINION */*
Now, I am bullish on AMC not because of crazy conspiracy theories. but based on trends:
1: People wont want to stream new movies, they will want to go to the movies, make an event out of it, hang out with friends. Streaming, weve done enough of it in 2020. I think Box office will go way up from 2019 levels, once 70%+ of the US population has been vaccinated (Fall 2021). But even for Memorial Day Weekend and July 4th Weekend - we should see some super high attendance numbers.
Movie going is a cheap, easy, everyone can go type activity - when compared to other things people have been missing - like travel.. going to the movies, is doable by almost everyone
2: AMC renegotiated movie ticket fees they pay to the studios. In the earnings call, AMC CEO said that if youre seeing Warner bros movies in their theaters, its because they came to an agreement.. Rumors on the street is that they used to pay 55% in fees back to the studio, now they could be at 38%. Numbers arent published, so they are not fact. But they did lower their cost.
AMC CEO on Earnings Call: We put out a very clear statement that we were not willing to let Warner Bros. advantage its streaming service at AMC shareholders expense. And you may have noticed that we are playing Warner Bros. movies right now. Now we never discuss our film terms publicly, and I wont break that pattern today. But you should properly assume that if were playing Warner movies, we came to agreement with Warner that any changes in their strategy are being done in ways where AMC shareholders benefit as opposed to or being penalized.
So if attendance goes up from 2019 levels, and AMC gets to keep more per ticket sold, that means they could bring in more NET revenue than in 2019 - not even talking 2020.
3: Add the stimulus, markets going green, covid going down, vaccines going up.. its looking good for AMC in the mid-term.
Thats my 2 c
**EDIT / ADD-ON - SHORT INTEREST */*
As of March 12, 2021:
AMC Short Interest is $528M
51.05M Shares Shorted
Shorters are down $140,000,000 (-20% in the last week alone)
Outstanding Shares: 450,000,000
** OPINION */*
It’s easy for shorters to go buy these 51M shares out of 268M. We would have to be holding 250M+ shares to be able to create a squeeze. That’s a huge number… We’d have to be like 2M people, holding 125 shares each (1,000$ at 8$ average)… Totally possible numbers, especially I f people throw their Stimulus into AMC? Yeah totally can make it happen.. but would they hold if it goes up? and then would they Hold when it goes to 50$...100$.. ? gains are hard not to cash out when you actually see the number at your fingertips. Hard to say how people will react. But I’m holding and bullish.
But a raise in the stock price when they do buy back these 51 M shares will happen, it’s still 1/9 of the outstanding share count.. that’s pretty big, so yes, a bump short term, dip, go back up. Waiting for summer blockbuster numbers and then earnings in November. These are my two bumps.
Not advice, just giving facts about share count and then opinions on how I see it
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