VXRT -  USA Stock  

USD 8.99  0.04  0.45%

Vaxart Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Vaxart shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Vaxarts future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Vaxart and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Vaxarts fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Vaxart Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.

Also, please take a look at Vaxart Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Vaxart based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Vaxart stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Vaxart over a specific investment horizon. Using Vaxart hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vaxart Inc from the perspective of Vaxart response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Vaxart. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Vaxart to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Vaxart because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Vaxart after-hype prediction price


  $ 9.02  

There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vaxarts price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Vaxart in the context of predictive analytics.

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vaxart. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vaxarts peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vaxarts competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Vaxart Inc.

Vaxart After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Vaxart at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vaxart or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Vaxart, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.

      Expected price to next headline 

Vaxart Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Vaxarts stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vaxarts historical news coverage. Vaxarts after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.39 and 14.65, respectively. We have considered Vaxarts daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this methods predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.

Current Value


1st of September 2021

Vaxart is moderately volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vaxart Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Vaxart Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Vaxart is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vaxart backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular companys price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vaxart, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.52  5.62  0.05   1.29  9 Events / Month3 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility

Vaxart Hype Timeline

Vaxart Inc is at this time traded for 8.99. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.29. Vaxart is projected to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 9.02. The average volatility ofmedia hypeimpact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.55% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.52%. The volatility of related hype on Vaxart is about 226.77% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 10.28. About 34.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.46. Vaxart Inc next dividend is scheduled to be issued on the 9th of November 2012. The entity had a split on the 14th of February 2018. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projectedpress releasewill be in about 9 days.

Also, please take a look at Vaxart Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Vaxart Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Vaxarts direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vaxarts future price movements. Getting to know how Vaxart rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vaxart may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Vaxart Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Vaxart price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vaxart using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vaxart charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Vaxart Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Vaxart stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Vaxart Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a textbook version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Vaxart based on analysis of Vaxart hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.

We also calculate exposure to Vaxarts market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Vaxarts related companies.

Story Coverage note for Vaxart

The number of cover stories for Vaxart depends on current market conditions and Vaxarts risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Vaxart is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Vaxarts long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Vaxart Short Properties

Vaxarts future price predictability will typically decrease when Vaxarts long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Vaxart Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Vaxarts investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vaxarts indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.

Shares Percent Shares Out21.74%
Short Percent Of Float27.88%
Float Shares114.75M
Shares Short Prior Month25.8M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day4.6M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month10.28M
Date Short Interest15th of April 2021

Also, please take a look at Vaxart Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Vaxart Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Vaxarts statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for Vaxart Stock analysis

When running Vaxart Inc price analysis, check to measure Vaxarts market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vaxart is operating at the current time. Most of Vaxarts value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vaxarts future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vaxarts price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vaxart to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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The market value of Vaxart Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vaxart that is recorded on the companys balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vaxarts value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vaxarts true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vaxarts market value can be influenced by many factors that dont directly affect Vaxart Inc underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between Vaxarts value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Vaxart value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vaxarts price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

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